Safe Seats, Dangerous Democracy: How Politicians Draw Districts To Rig Elections

Executive Summary

Ohio's current districts do not provide for strong competition:
• Four of eighteen Ohio congressional districts are competitive.
• Five of thirty-three Ohio Senate districts are competitive.
• Fifteen of ninety-nine Ohio House districts are competitive.

Uncontested races:
Two of Ohio's members of Congress, four state senators, and twenty-two members of the Ohio House ran unopposed. All but three of these twenty-eight uncontested candidates represented safe districts.

Weak Candidates:
By design, safe districts often produce weak candidates of both parties; these candidates often do worse than their party's presidential candidate in the same district while more competitive districts often have candidates who outperform their party's presidential nominee. All ten of the worst performing winning House candidates came from safe districts. Only two of the ten Ohio House candidates who most outperformed their party's presidential candidate came from safe districts. Only four of the ten strongest performing Senate candidates came from safe districts, while none of the bottom ten performing Senators came from a competitive district. The only winning congressional candidate who did worse than his party's presidential nominee is from a safe district.

Gerrymandering was 91% successful in rigging election results:
The candidate who was favored by the partisan composition of the district won the election in 115 out of 126 districts that are either safe or leaning safe seats. In the twenty-four districts that were drawn to be competitive, the candidate favored by the partisan makeup of the district won only 45% of the time.

Moderates of all parties are severely underrepresented:

• The 38% of Ohio voters who identify ad moderates are represented by only 11% of the congressional delegation.

• 21% of Ohioans identified themselves as liberals, while 33% of Ohio's congressional delegation are liberal.

• 40% of Ohioans indentified themselves as conservatives. 55% of Ohio's congressional delegation are conservative.

Women are underrepresented:
More than half (51.4 percent) of Ohio voters are women. Only 22% of the Ohio House, 15% of the Ohio Senate, and 16% of the Ohio congressional delegation were women after the 2004 elections.

Republicans, who controlled the 2001 redistricting, are currently overrepresented and Democrats are underrepresented:

• 49% of Ohio voters cast ballots in favor of Democratic candidates for Congress in 2004. 33% of Ohio's congressional delegation is Democrat.

• 51% of Ohio voters cast ballots in favor of Republican candidates for Congress in 2004. 66% of Ohio's congressional delegation is Republican.

• 43% of Ohio voters supported Democratic candidates in the 2002 and 2004 Senate elections. 33% of the senators selected by theses votes are Democrats.

• 57% of Ohio voters supported Republican candidate in the 2002 and 2004 Senate elections. 67% of the senators selected by these votes are Republicans.

• 48% of Ohio voters cast ballots in favor of Democratic candidates for the Ohio House in 2004. Just 38% (38 of 99) of candidates selected by these ballots were Democrats (one has since switched parties.)

• 51% of Ohio voters cast ballots in favor of Republican candidates for the Ohio House in 2004. 62% of candidates selected by these ballots were Republicans.

All of the top ten safest seats in the Ohio house are held by Democrats, an indication that Democratic voters were packed into districts to reduce their representation.

The party that controls redistricting historically has gained considerably, picking up an average of eight seats in the House and 2 in the Senate:

• The Democrats gained thirteen seats in the Ohio House and eight seats in the Ohio Senate after controlling the 1971 redistricting despite having their presidential candidate, George McGovern lose Ohio by more than twenty points in the 1972 election.

• The Democrats gained six seats in the Ohio House but gained no seats in the Ohio Senate after controlling the 1981 redistricting despie having their presidential candidate, Jimmy Carter, lose Ohio by more than ten points in the 1982 election.

• The Republicans gained eight seats in the Ohio House and lost one seat in the Ohio Senate after controlling the 1991 redistricting process while losing the presidential race by two points.

• The Republicans gained three seats in the Ohio House in 2002 and one seat in the Ohio Senate after controlling the 2001 redistricting process.